The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
GST collections jumped 15 per cent to nearly Rs 1.68 lakh crore in November, the finance ministry said on Friday. Goods and Services Tax (GST) mop-up was over Rs 1.45 lakh crore in November 2022.
Retail inflation declined to a 25-month low of 4.25 per cent in May mainly on account of softening prices of food and fuel items, with experts saying that RBI is expected to hold interest rates steady in the current fiscal. This is the fourth straight month when retail inflation has declined and the third straight month of Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remaining within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. CPI-based inflation stood at 4.7 per cent in April and 7.04 per cent in May 2022.
India's gross tax revenue, comprising both direct and indirect taxes between April and July, reported a growth rate of merely 2.8 per cent to Rs 8.9 trillion compared to the same period a year ago, as shown by government data on Thursday. This growth was dampened by direct tax figures, offsetting the healthy growth in goods and services tax collections and Customs duties. While net tax revenue contracted by 12.6 per cent to Rs 5.8 trillion up to July, accounting for 25 per cent of the Rs 23.3 trillion full-year target, this could be attributed to the increased tax devolution to states during the period.
Retail inflation declined to 6.83 per cent in August after touching a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, mainly due to softening prices of vegetables, but still remains above the Reserve Bank's comfort zone. The overall inflation in the food basket stood at 9.94 per cent in August as against 11.51 per cent in July, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 7 per cent in August 2022.
India's current account deficit declined sharply to 1 per cent of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter of this financial year, mainly due to lower merchandise trade deficit and growth in services exports, according to a RBI data released on Tuesday. The current account deficit (CAD), which represents the difference between the total amount of money sent abroad and money received from overseas across the economy, was 3.8 per cent of GDP or $30.9 billion in the July-September quarter in 2022-23. CAD was $9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year 2023-24.
Led by healthy growth in coal, crude oil, fertilisers, cement and electricity production, output of eight core industries grew to a 13-month high of 18.1 per cent in May this year, according to official data released on Thursday. The growth of core infrastructure sectors expanded by 16.4 per cent in the year-ago period and 9.3 per cent in April this year. The last high growth was recorded in April 2021 when it was 62.6 per cent.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded by 7.9 per cent in September -- the highest in three months -- on account of better show by coal, fertiliser, cement and electricity segments, according to official data released on Monday. In September last year, the growth rate stood at 5.4 per cent. It was 4.1 per cent in August. The previous high was in June when the output expanded by 13.1 per cent.
In November, the fiscal deficit widened by Rs 2.2 trillion, the highest ever in any month this financial year.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded by 3.8 per cent in December 2021 against a 0.4 per cent contraction in the same month last year on better show by coal, cement and refinery products, according to the official data released on Monday. Barring crude oil and steel, all sectors recorded positive growth in December 2021. The core sector industries had grown by 3.4 per cent in November 2021.
Adding petrol and diesel to GST was a challenging task due to their significant role as revenue generators for both the central and state governments.
The production growth of eight infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent in March due to a decline in the output of coal and crude oil, though for the full 2021-22 fiscal, the core sector recorded a 10.4 per cent expansion, according to official data released on Friday. The eight infrastructure sectors - coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity - had expanded by 6 per cent in February. During April-March 2021-22, the eight sectors grew by 10.4 per cent compared to a contraction of 6.4 per cent in 2020-21. The output of coal and crude oil contracted by 0.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent in March.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors increased by 5.4 per cent in November against a 3.2 per cent growth in the same month last year on a better show by coal, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity segments, according to the official data released on Friday. Crude oil, natural gas and refinery products, however, recorded negative growth in November this year. The production growth of eight key sectors slowed down to 0.9 per cent in October.
The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
Alloting more funds for MNREGA and PM-KISAN could wipe out the entire additional money that the Centre may have for FY25.
India's merchandise exports in June rose by 16.78 per cent year-on-year to $37.94 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record $25.63 billion on account of a steep increase in gold and crude oil imports, according to the government's preliminary data released on Monday. The export growth in June moderated from 20.55 per cent in May and 48.34 per cent in June 2021. During the month under review, exports of engineering, pharmaceutical and plastic products recorded negative growth.
The wholesale price-based inflation spiked to 12.54 per cent in October, mainly due to rise in prices of manufactured products and crude petroleum. WPI inflation has remained in double digit for the seventh consecutive month beginning April. Inflation in September this year was at 10.66 per cent, while in October 2020 it was at 1.31 per cent.
The output of eight core infrastructure sectors grew marginally by 0.1 per cent in January, mainly due to growth in the production of fertiliser, steel and electricity. The core sectors had expanded by 2.2 per cent in January 2020, according to the provisional data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Friday. Coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, and cement recorded negative growth in January.
Retail inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July as prices of vegetables and other food items spiked, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.87 in June and 6.71 per cent in July 2022. Previously, high inflation was recorded at 7.79 per cent in April 2022.
The Union government's finances witnessed significant improvement in August after a stressful first four months of the current fiscal year. India's gross tax revenue, comprising both direct and indirect taxes, for the first five months of 2023-24 surged 16.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 11.8 trillion. During the April-July period, gross tax revenue increased by a mere 2.8 per cent compared to the Budget Estimate of 12.1 per cent growth for FY24.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das had stumped the market in the previous two policies - in August and in October - first with action and then with words. In August, it was the introduction of an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) to take out excess liquidity, which took the markets by surprise. In October, there was no action. Rather, what is known as "open mouth operation", Das' comment that the central bank might conduct open market operations (OMOs) by selling bonds tempered the euphoria in the bond markets after JP Morgan's inclusion of India in its Emerging Market Bond Index.
Retail inflation declined to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April mainly due to falling prices of vegetables, oils and fats, and came closer to Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, showed government data released Friday. It was for the second month in a row that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remained within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
India's industrial production contracted by 4 per cent in October, the sharpest fall in 26 months, mainly due to decline in output of manufacturing and subdued performance of mining and power generation sectors, according to official data released on Monday. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had grown 4.2 per cent in October 2021. The previous low was (-) 7.1 per cent in August 2020.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
Moody's on Thursday upped India's growth projection for the next financial year beginning April 1, to 13.7 per cent, from 10.8 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine. For current fiscal, the US-based rating agency expects the economy to contract 7 per cent, lower than its previous estimate of 10.6 per cent contraction.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
The Union government is projected to share about 32 per cent of central taxes with states during the financial year 2024-25 against the 15th Finance Commission's recommendation of 41 per cent. The Revised Estimates (RE) for FY24, too, show a similar share of states in the central taxes at 32 per cent. In absolute terms, however, there has been an increase in the amount devolved to states compared to the Budget Estimates (BE) for FY24 at Rs 11 trillion.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
The government may be staring at a modest slippage in fiscal deficit for 2022-23 (FY23), with the Ministry of Finance seeking parliamentary approval for additional spending through a second and final tranche of supplementary demands for grants. On Monday, as the Budget session of Parliament resumed, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman sought Parliament approval for additional gross spending of Rs 2.7 trillion in FY23 (which ends on March 31). While net cash outgo is pegged at Rs 1.48 trillion, the rest will be matched by savings or enhanced receipts, the finance ministry said.
The states will forego around Rs 44,000 crore of tax revenue after they reduced VAT on petrol and diesel in the reminder of the fiscal but higher central tax devolution of Rs 60,000 crore will offset the losses, according to a report. After months of calls for lowering the taxes on the fuels, the Centre on November 4 cut excise duty on diesel by Rs 10 a litre and by Rs 5 on petrol. Following this, as many as 25 states and Union territories have lowered value-added tax (VAT) on these fuels.
But the government will present a second tranche of Supplementary Demands for Grants during the Budget session of Parliament in February, when it can seek additional spending.
The deficit stood over Rs 8 trillion in the first seven months of the current financial year. Non-tax revenues, comprising transfers from the RBI and dividends of the public sector units, shored up the Centre's revenues.
Rating agency Icra on Wednesday said while there is some evidence of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, it is yet to attain the durability being sought by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precursor to policy transmission. The agency expects the real GDP to expand 6-6.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4 per cent in Q2 FY2022). It also sees the RBI maintaining the status quo in the upcoming monetary policy review to be held in February.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
The GST revenues for August 2023 have shown a growth of 11 per cent year on year due to increased compliance and less evasion, Revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. The collection from Goods and Services Tax (GST) was Rs 1,43,612 crore in August 2022. "Roughly numbers are in the range of 11 per cent year on year growth as in earlier months," Malhotra told reporters.
The growth in the contact-intensive portion of the economy trailed our expectation, highlighting how imperative it is for confidence to improve, either through accelerated vaccinations or otherwise, to drive a sustainable recovery in these sectors, asserts Aditi Nayar.
The production of eight infrastructure sectors rose by 7.5 per cent in October on healthy performance by the segments of coal, natural gas, refinery products and cement, official data released on Tuesday showed. The output of eight core sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 0.5 per cent in October 2020, according to the data released by the commerce and industry ministry. Core sectors' growth stood at 4.5 per cent in September this year.
The impact of fiscal measures announced by the government to contain inflation will be seen in the next few months because of the base effect, reports Indivjal Dhasmana.
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